Who’s Ready for ASEAN 2015? Firm Expectations and Preparations in the Philippines

New-new trade theory makes predictions regarding the types of firms most likely to benefit from increases in economic openness. This paper exploits the launch of the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 to test predictions regarding the types of firms that are optimistic about, and prepared for, increased regional integration. We introduce data from an original survey conducted just prior to the launch of the AEC of over 300 mostly multinational firms operating in the Philippines. We find that firms’ priorexposure to other economies in the region is a strong and positive predictor of both optimism and preparation. A firms’ capabilities (i.e., size, profitability, and growth), on the other hand, predict preparation strongly and optimism only weakly. Of particular relevance to policy makers, we also find that firms’ primary policy demand on the Philippines government is for more information and communication, and that even highly capable firms make this demand. Our findings suggest that, despite outreach efforts by the Philippines government, a lack of information continues to impede firms’ abilities to seize the new opportunities associated with regional integration.

迎接2015年东盟，谁最有准备？：菲律宾企业的期望和有准备程度

关键词：东盟；东盟经济共同体；企业；投资；外国直接投资。

新-新贸易理论就最可能受益于经济开放程度提高的企业类型做出了预测。本论文利用2015年东盟经济共同体成立的机会测试了哪些类型的企业对地区整合度提高持乐观态度并且有所准备。我们引入了在东盟经济共同体建立之前对在菲律宾开展业务的超过三百家以跨国公司为主的企业进行的一个原始调查的数据。我们发现企业在此之前是否接触该地区的其它经济体是预测企业乐观态度和有准备程度的一个强有力而且正向的指标。另一方面， 企业的能力（也就是其规模、盈利水平以及增长速度）能够有效预测企业的有准备程度， 但只能微弱预测企业的乐观态度。对于政策制定者特别重要的一点是，我们还发现企业对菲律宾政府最主要的诉求是更多的信息和沟通，甚至连能力很高的企业也提出这个诉求。我们的研究发现表明，尽管菲律宾政府做出了外展的努力，但是信息的缺乏仍然继续阻碍着企业充分利用地区整合新机遇的能力。

Translated from English by Li Guo