Are Economic Sanctions against North Korea Effective? Assessing Nighttime Light in 25 Major Cities

This study analyzes the effects of the economic sanctions imposed against North Korea since 2016 on the economic well-being of North Korean cities. As a proxy for economic well-being, we use nighttime light (NTL), which is estimated from 1992 to 2019 through an inter-calibration process for DMSP/OLS and SNPP/VIIRS. We found that the total NTL growth rate of 25 major cities decreased after 2016, but that NTL itself was still getting brighter until 2009. The declines in the NTL growth rates of Pyongyang, the capital city, as well as cities bordering China and self-regenerating cities, were relatively slight. By contrast, the declines in the NTL growth rates of coal-mining cities and inland cities without sufficient production bases were greater than those in other cities. Cities in regions relying on coal-mining have traditionally accounted for a large portion of North Korea’s exports, and since they are heavily affected by sanctions, coal mining could become a vulnerable sector, which would threaten North Korea’s economic well-being.

对北韩实行的经济制裁是否有效？：对多城市夜间灯火的评估

关键词： 北韩, 夜间灯光, 经济制裁, 经济表现, 空军国防气象卫星项目, 可见红外成像辐射仪。

本研究分析了2016年以来实行的经济制裁对北韩城市的经济表现的影响。我们通过美国国防气象卫星搭载的业务性线性传感器（DMSP/OLS）和Suomi国家极轨道伙伴关系卫星搭载的可见光红外成像辐射仪（SNPP/VIIRS）的交互校准过程，以估算的1992到2019年期间的夜间灯光（NTL）作为经济表现的代理值。我们发现2016年以后25个主要城市的夜间灯光总增长率有所下降，但是直到2019年夜间灯光本身仍然保持增长。首都平壤、跟中国接壤的城市以及 “自我再生城市” 的夜间灯光增长率也只有较为轻微程度的下降。相比之下，煤矿城市和缺少充分生产基础的内陆城市的夜间灯光增长率就比其它城市的下降幅度更大。依赖煤矿开采的城市传统上承担了北韩相当大的比例的出口，由于它们受到制裁的沉重打击，采煤业可能成为一个脆弱的部门，从而威胁到北韩的经济表现。

Translated from English by Li Guo