Are Economic Sanctions against North Korea Effective? Assessing Nighttime Light in 25 Major Cities

This study analyzes the effects of the economic sanctions imposed against North Korea since 2016 on the economic well-being of North Korean cities. As a proxy for economic well-being, we use nighttime light (NTL), which is estimated from 1992 to 2019 through an inter-calibration process for DMSP/OLS and SNPP/VIIRS. We found that the total NTL growth rate of 25 major cities decreased after 2016, but that NTL itself was still getting brighter until 2009. The declines in the NTL growth rates of Pyongyang, the capital city, as well as cities bordering China and self-regenerating cities, were relatively slight. By contrast, the declines in the NTL growth rates of coal-mining cities and inland cities without sufficient production bases were greater than those in other cities. Cities in regions relying on coal-mining have traditionally accounted for a large portion of North Korea’s exports, and since they are heavily affected by sanctions, coal mining could become a vulnerable sector, which would threaten North Korea’s economic well-being.