The Himalayan and Tibetan region and adjacent plains are highly flood-prone, causing massive damage in both urban and rural areas. While this is well known and moderately well studied, we contend that floods are connected to other water issues in this region and hence should not be analyzed in isolation. This contention is the major and new contribution of this paper which we analyze using cause–effect diagrams that express dynamic hypotheses. The links emphasize a need to take a much broader than usual view to minimize the unintended consequences of governance interventions, and to avoid worsening already highly dangerous situations. The governance challenges revealed by such a view are immense, but the large-scale framework presented here indicates a need for a collaborative, cross-sectoral approach to adaptive governance. While some of what is suggested in this paper is geopolitically unrealizable at the moment, the discussion is intended as a contribution to efforts to prepare for the changes that are anticipated.
喜马拉雅-青藏高原地区洪水与其它水问题之间的关联
关键词： 洪水，治理，西藏，喜马拉雅，城市和农村，复合型灾害，系统动态
喜马拉雅-青藏高原地区及周边平原是洪水高发区，这给城市和乡村都带来了巨大的损失。尽管这个问题已经为人熟知，并且也得到了一定的研究，但我们提出不同看法，认为这个地区的洪水是和其他水问题联系在一起的，因此不应该隔离起来孤立地分析。作为本论文最重大和最有新意的成果，我们对这个争鸣性论点是通过表达动态假设的因果图表来进行分析的。洪水与其它水问题之间的这些关联提醒我们必须要拓宽视野，尽量将政府干预带来的预期之外的后果降到最低，并且避免进一步恶化已经高度危险的现状。这个视角揭示出治理面对的巨大挑战，但本文在此提出的宏观框架表明，适应性的治理需要合作型、跨部门的方法。尽管本文所提出的一些建议目前从地缘政治学的角度来说缺少现实可能性，但本文的讨论意在为可预见的未来变化做好准备工作。
Translated from English by Li Guo
Robert J. Wasson