Perceived Protest Efficacy: How Economic and Diplomatic Ties with China Influence Support for Anti-China Protests Over South China Sea Disputes

How do citizens in Southeast Asia view and support protests against China’s aggression in the South China Sea (SCS)? Despite the critical role of public opinion in shaping Southeast Asian states’ bargaining power with China and preferences for resolving SCS disputes, little research has addressed this question. This article examines how the multifaceted economic and diplomatic relations between China and SCS claimant states influence public attitudes toward anti-China protests, focusing on the mediating role of perceived protest efficacy—the belief that protesting can effectively address SCS disputes. Using survey experiments in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, I find that information about diplomatic relations with China exerts a stronger influence on public attitudes than economic factors. Emphasizing broader political tensions increases support for anti-China protests, while highlighting improved diplomatic ties reduces it in Vietnam and Indonesia. In Malaysia, exposure to economic dependence on China diminishes support for protests. Crucially, the findings reveal that perceptions of protest efficacy mediate these effects, demonstrating how the salience of certain narratives affects collective action. By highlighting the balance between confrontation and diplomacy, this study provides fresh insights into regional dynamics, public mobilization in authoritarian regimes, and the challenges of building anti-China coalitions in Southeast Asia.