Russia’s Reorientation to Asia: Causes and Strategic Implications

This research applies a neoclassical realist framework to explore the causes and consequences of Russia’s recent “reorientation to Asia.” Based on an analysis of publications and fieldwork conducted in Russia, the paper examines both the international systemic and the Russian domestic factors that have contributed to this important change in Russia’s foreign policy. At the system level, Russia’s turn to Asia can be understood as a part of its longer campaign of balancing against American unipolar domination. At the unit level, economic demands to develop Russia’s eastern territories, together with the complex socio-political processes of post-Soviet identity formation, generated a political environment that was conducive to Asia-oriented policies. Russia’s reorientation to Asia implies not only comprehensive strategic cooperation with specific Asian powers, such as China, South Korea, or Japan, but also a “reinvention” of Russia as a Eurasian power. Given Russia’s cross-continental spread and economic and military capabilities, its reorientation to Asia may have significant implications for the balance of power in the current world system.

俄罗斯针对亚洲的重新定位：原因及战略意义

关键词：俄罗斯外交政策，俄-中关系，权力平衡，俄罗斯以亚洲为中心

本研究使用新古典现实主义框架探讨了俄罗斯近来“针对亚洲重新定位”的原因及后果。本论文根据已发表文献及在俄罗斯的实地考察，检验了国际体系中和俄罗斯本土内部对俄罗斯这一重要外交政策转变发挥作用的因素。在系统层面，俄罗斯转向亚洲可以看作是它为平衡美国单极主宰而做出的更长期的努力的一部分。在国家这一单位层面，发展俄罗斯东部领土经济的要求与后苏联身份形成这一复杂的社会政治过程结合在一起，形成了一个有利于出台面向亚洲定位的政策的环境。俄罗斯面向亚洲重新定位，不仅意味着与特定亚洲大国诸如中国、韩国或是日本的全面战略合作，而且意味着俄罗斯作为欧亚大国的“重生”。鉴于俄罗斯横跨大陆的广袤国土以及强大的经济和军事实力，它面向亚洲的重新定位可能对于当今世界体系中的权力平衡具有重大意义。

Translated from English by Li Guo