This article examines why and how small powers balance big powers. One such small power is the Philippines, which—despite its military weakness– applies a balancing policy on an emergent China relative to the South China Sea imbroglio. Largely, this balancing policy is the upshot of three developments: a) the present Aquino Administration’s efforts to disassociate itself from the previous Arroyo Administration’s policy of equi-balancing China and the U.S.; b) China’s heavy-handed behavior in the South China Sea dispute; and c) the willingness of the U.S. to assist the Philippines in constraining an assertive China. In conclusion, the article offers two reasons why this balancing policy is risky and difficult. First, the Philippines needs time and resources to develop the military capability to back its territorial claim in the South China Sea; and second, the U.S., though supportive of the Philippine position, is wary of triggering a full-blown geo-strategic rivalry with China.
阿基諾政府的平衡策略與興起的中國：透視其國内外層面
本文探討權力小國為何以及怎樣尋求與權力大國的平衡。菲律賓就是這樣的一個權力小國。它儘管在軍事上弱小，卻在與新興的中國就南海問題的爭端上使用了平衡策略。在很大程度上這一平衡策略是三項發展的結果： 其一，當今的阿基諾政府努力將自己與前阿羅約政府用中國和美國相互制衡的政策區分開來； 其二，中國在南海爭端中採取了強硬的行為； 其三，美國願意協助菲律賓制約獨斷的中國。最後，本文指出，出於兩個原因這一平衡策略是有風險爾困難的 。首先，菲律賓需要時間和資源發展其軍事能力來支持其在中國南海的領土要求；第二，美國雖然支持菲律賓的立場，卻不願由此引發與中國全面的地緣戰略對立。
Translated from English by Xin Huang
Renato Cruz De Castro