Asia in World Politics. Lanham; Boulder: Rowman & Littlefield, 2018. xii, 289 pp. US$34.00, paper. ISBN 978-1-4422-3756-8.
This timely book by Lowell Dittmer, one of the most experienced Asia watchers, provides important insights into the dynamics shaping Asian international relations. The book’s analytical framework is based on the author’s pioneering research on the strategic triangle between the United States, China, and the Soviet Union in the 1970s. Here, Dittmer uses his insights on triangular relations to make sense of Asian international relations.
Dittmer posits that international relations in Asia since the Cold War can be analyzed within a triangular framework encompassing the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and the rest of Asia (ROA). According to him, “triangularity” means that the three are all rational actors trying to “maximize national interests by cultivating the most advantageous feasible relations with the other two, and that each bilateral relationship is premised on relations with the third” (257).
This insightful approach is premised on the spectacular rise of China, which is emerging as a pre-eminent actor in regional international relations. The surge in Chinese pre-eminence, which makes “China’s Asia” a distinct, though not inevitable, possibility according to Dittmer, lays the foundation of triangular dynamics that govern other countries’ relations with China and the United States.
Dittmer argues that China’s rise presents both opportunities and concerns for other countries in the region. In this context, enlisting a third party becomes an important hedging strategy for regional countries. As Dittmer writes, “This is a tactic we shall refer to hereafter as triangulation” (10). An example he refers to concerns the foreign policies of Rodrigo Duterte, who has pursued a hedging strategy that seeks to improve relations with Beijing, mainly for economic gains, without cancelling the US-Philippines mutual defense treaty.
According to Dittmer, a triangle is different from external balancing, “for the weaker state does not necessarily oppose and may even continue to need the stronger.” Indeed, “the weaker state, state B, while fearing state A, may not fully trust the third party (state C), and may derive advantages from sustained relations with state A. The relationship between B and C may also vary from close embrace to very tenuous collaboration” (10). Dittmer’s triangle model “presumes that China’s relations with the rest of Asia may be best understood as a triangular relationship in which the United States is the third actor” (13).
This triangular model, in which each actor in its bilateral moves must take into account the interests and possible reactions of a third actor, very much captures today’s international relations in Asia. As Dittmer claims, “[a]t present, the triangle can be broadly characterized as a romantic triangle in which the rest of Asia (ROA) enjoys better relations with both China and the United States than the latter have with each other.” While the ROA may have diverse preferences, “all members, however, preferring both major powers to remain engaged in the region without winning or losing completely” (258).
In contrast, “[t]he Sino-US relationship can be characterized not as an opposition as much as a rivalry between the two in which both are competing with a mix of hard and soft power for leadership of the ROA” (258). Therefore, the rivalry between them is “in part bilateral and in part triangular.”
The triangular model of the book is a good empirical fit with today’s international relations of Asia. The general dynamics depicted by the model can accurately explain a broad pattern of behaviour among Asian countries in the context of China’s rise. Regional countries, including US treaty allies, prefer good relations with both. China’s economic power and US military might are both valued by these countries, creating an impetus for the triangular model.
It is thus the rise of China that enables this situation. China’s economic might has turned it into the largest trading partner of almost all countries in the region. As such, few have opted for the balancing model, which should see them allying closer with the United States against China. Therefore, the triangular model is really about the power shift currently under way in the Asia Pacific and the waning of American primacy in the region.
The model also makes broader contributions to international relations theory by presenting an alternative depiction of state behaviour in the context of this power shift. Structural realism thus sees balancing as the law of anarchic international politics. However, China’s rise has resulted in much more complex behaviours by other states in the region. Rather than rushing toward the United States, they actually try to maintain good relations with both.
The first chapter of the book lays out the conceptual framework for the triangular model. Chapter 2 examines Sino-US relations and the contest for regional primacy. Chapter 3 concerns the “great” strategic triangle involving China, the United States, and Russia. Chapter 4 studies Sino-Japanese relations from a triangular perspective. Chapter 5 tackles the triangular model in the context of China’s relations with Taiwan and the two Koreas. Chapter 6 applies the triangular model to China’s relations with ASEAN countries. Chapter 7 addresses China’s relations with India and the emerging role of the United States in that relationship. Finally, chapter 8 deals with China’s relations with Australia, a treaty ally of the United States. Chapter 9 offers a conclusion that draws important insights from the empirical cases in the book and restates the key arguments of the triangle model.
In conclusion, the triangle model and impressive empirical breath of this book constitute important and very timely contributions to the study of Chinese foreign policy, Asian international politics, and international relations theory. It is a highly recommended read for those who research on these topics or teach related courses at different university levels.
Baohui Zhang
Lingnan University, Hong Kong SAR