Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2018. xiv, 332 pp. (Maps.) US$155.00, cloth. ISBN 978-1-78643-381-7.
China’s Eurasian Dilemmas is an ambitious book that provides an extensive overview of regional developments in contemporary Eurasia. The aim of Ferguson’s work is to address a gap in the literature, namely that “China’s deepening engagement in Eurasian affairs and its evolution into a global power […] have not been systematically or clearly analyzed in popular or academic publications, partly due to a tendency to position these debates alongside the mantra of the China-threat thesis” (1). By drawing from a range of secondary sources—academic, government, media, and think tank—Ferguson argues that China’s prosperity and security and the transition “from an Asian regional player to a ‘new type’ of global power based on comprehensive continental and maritime capacities, both military and commercial […] rests largely on how well China manages its ‘Eurasian footprint,’ including economic, environmental, and security factors” (2). This task is challenging considering “divergent perceptions of global issues between Russia and China and a changing balance of power that is not entirely moderated” by regional organizations (2).
Chapter 1 addresses China’s emergence as a Eurasian power and sketches out ten different challenges—or “dilemmas”—that China needs to address in order to manage its Eurasian footprint. Chapter 2 addresses the evolution of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Chinese-dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) that provide important security roles in the region, but remain limited since they are not able to address longstanding regional conflicts in Transnistria or the Wakhan region. Chapter 3 dives into further detail and sheds light onto challenges such as the superficial stability of Central Asian regimes (with Uzbekistan as an example), the situation in Afghanistan, as well as the emergence of non-tradition security risks. Chapters 4 discusses how both China’s and Russia’s visions for Eurasia diverge: Russia seeks a multipolar world order that would see it as one of the great powers, while China works towards a more dynamic multilateralism (and how this can increase the propensity for conflict to emerge). Chapter 5 focuses on the role that Russia plays in the region and reflects on the evolution of China-Russia relations, which Ferguson argues is primarily based on “a number of necessities” (131). Chapter 6 discusses the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a driver of Eurasian integration, while chapter 7 follows with a discussion of the European Union (EU) as the “hidden balancer” of the region. Chapter 8 addresses various pathways for China as a sustainable global power. In the conclusion, Ferguson revisits the dilemmas China faces, noting that ultimately, “China needs to be given a chance to fulfil its emerging role in a new Eurasia, even if this involves hard bargaining; institutional learning; political reform; and gradual power-sharing at the regional and global levels,” because we could otherwise see the “beginnings of another ‘long century’ of disorder, conflict, warfare, and human impoverishment” (237).
The writing style in China’s Eurasian Dilemmas is accessible and engaging; moreover, Ferguson draws from international relations (IR) theory only sporadically and does not delve into methodology. This makes the book accessible to anyone with an interest in Eurasia affairs, without presuming much prior knowledge. The book is at its strongest when it goes into detail on the evolution of organizations such as the CSTO and SCO, or when it discusses important milestones in bilateral relations between China and Russia/the EU. The empirical focus of the book and its nuanced discussion of China’s aspirations and challenges in Eurasia is a welcome addition to a field that—as Ferguson rightfully notes—approaches China’s role in Eurasia from geopolitical perspectives that tend to overemphasize China’s rise as a threat.
However, while the empirical richness of the book is impressive and a clear testimony of the author’s broad expertise, the wide-ranging scope is also one of the book’s weaknesses. For one, China’s Eurasian Dilemmas addresses far more than China’s challenges; including a detailed analysis of Russia’s, the EU’s, Uzbekistan’s, or India’s challenges and positions, takes away from a more thorough discussion of China’s domestic situation. For instance, the risks of a failing BRI are primarily portrayed as a global problem (216ff); whereas it would also have been fruitful to provide detail regarding the general risks of a failed BRI for Communist Party of China (CCP) leadership in China and specifically towards Xi Jinping’s position as general secretary.
While the wide-scope problem of the book could have been addressed relatively easily, a more serious problem is that the reader can feel overwhelmed by the number of dilemmas (no less than ten) that—according to Ferguson—China faces. Here, a theoretical framework to organize the dilemmas and establish a hierarchy between them would have helped the reader understand which of the dilemmas is ultimately the most dire and would need to be addressed first by policymakers in China or elsewhere. Moreover, a framework would have also helped clarify how the individual chapters (and sometimes the sections within the chapters) hang together. Finally, in lacking a clear methodological section, it is difficult to assess the means by which Ferguson has arrived at his conclusions, and a careful discussion of his assumptions and source material would have greatly strengthened the study.
To a lesser extent, Ferguson’s definition of a “dilemma” could have been unpacked a bit better, particularly since he decides to depart from the more conventional understanding of a dilemma as a choice between two equally poor options, and advances a conceptualization that puts it closer to the notion of challenges without offering an explanation (20). Finally, the book lacks a clear definition of the region of Eurasia and which countries are a part of it. Although it seems as if Ferguson talks primarily about Eurasia as a post-Soviet space and some adjacent countries such as Afghanistan.
Notwithstanding such structural and definitional weaknesses, China’s Eurasian Dilemmas is an engaging book that could be of interest for policymakers, laypeople, and undergraduate students who wish to learn more about the political dynamics of Central Asia.
Stephanie Winkler
Stockholm University, Stockholm