London and New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2019. xv, 128 pp. (Illustrations.) US$27.99, paper. ISBN 978-981-15-0482-2.
This reviewer and other university instructors teaching courses involving contemporary Chinese foreign policy, US-China relations, and related topics have in recent years struggled to find books in English that could provide a systematic assessment of the perceptions of Chinese specialists on the above topics. The courses rely on the large and sophisticated literature coming from specialists in various parts of the world—commentary that tends to be critical of the policy and practice of the Chinese government but doesn’t provide adequate treatment of the Chinese specialists’ perspectives. Apart from universities, others endeavouring to keep informed of the problems and prospects of rising China and its international implications face similar frustrations, risking a one-sided understanding. This short, well-crafted volume takes a significant step forward in providing a systematic review of how Chinese international affairs specialists assess contemporary issues in Chinese foreign relations and particularly Chinese relations with the United States.
Two of the three authors have worked together before in producing such assessments. The approach this time relies, on the one hand, on over 1,200 questionnaires completed by participants at an annual conference of the Chinese Community of Political Science and International Studies in the years 2014 to 2017, and on the other hand, on the authors’ analysis of the opinions and findings in articles published in five leading Chinese journals dealing with world affairs from 2013 to 2018. The scope of the study discusses developments through 2017 but does not allow for a full explanation of the sharp American government hardening against China that began with the publication of the Trump government’s national security strategy in December 2017 and was followed by prominent signs of acute competition, the start of the so-called trade war, and endorsement in US law of a “whole of government” effort to counter multifaceted challenges seen coming from China in 2018.
The first chapter explains the methodology of the study and highlights the important role played by Chinese scholars of international affairs in the making of Chinese foreign policy. It sees those scholars as a sub-elite, acting as mediators between government decision makers and the general public, exerting hard to measure influence on both.
The second chapter assesses Chinese scholars’ views of China’s rise and implications. In general, they expressed confidence in China’s growing power capacities, especially its economic power. They did not believe China would displace US international hegemony for the foreseeable future, nor did they view China’s rise as leading to US decline. Rising China, in their view, was moving gradually toward being a hegemon in Asia but was not seen as challenging the existing world order.
The third chapter deals with China-US relations. The majority of scholars saw the relationship as neither good nor bad, with the remainder more inclined to forecast good relations than bad relations. Coming before the substantive US punitive tariffs in the trade war, the specialists surveyed generally judged that the biggest challenges in the China-US relationship were posed by US involvement in the sensitive security and sovereignty issues regarding Taiwan and China’s maritime disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Of the top specialists writing in the five journals within the scope of the study, those espousing the realist viewpoint in international relations theory tended to be pessimistic about future ties, seeing China’s rise as an inevitable challenge to the United States. By contrast, those with a liberal viewpoint in international relations theory stressed the importance of growing economic interdependence and salient common global and regional concerns binding the two countries together.
Chapter 4 deals with pertinent foreign policy questions, with the majority of those polled and surveyed favouring moving beyond Deng Xiaoping’s avowed low profile in foreign affairs and favouring change in existing ties with North Korea, seen increasingly as a problem for China. Opinion was more evenly divided on whether or not China should end past practice and establish binding alliance relationships with key countries. This chapter also provides brief rundowns on Chinese attitudes toward Russia, Japan, ASEAN, India, the EU, Africa, and Latin America.
The fifth and final chapter highlights three main findings from assessing the data. First, Chinese international affairs specialists were confident that national rejuvenation is China’s destiny, but aware that China is moving toward growing competition with the United States. They did not think that China would replace America’s hegemony any time soon. Second, they worried over rising tensions with the United States on sovereignty and security matters; economic and political issues were secondary. Third, the specialists were confident about China’s foreign policy practices as well as its bilateral relations with other major countries and regions.
The chapter concludes with a brief assessment by the book’s authors, in which they discuss the findings against the background of the sharp deterioration of US-China relations in 2018. The authors conclude that the Chinese specialists’ views from 2017 and earlier were on balance overly optimistic about the status and outlook of US-China relations. For their part, while explaining the sharp downturn in 2018, the authors emphasize the importance of what they view as a large power gap between the United States and China. They argue that the gap has made Beijing avoid compromise but nonetheless adjust its tactics to avoid damaging confrontation.
Overall, this volume’s in-depth research, careful analysis, and clear presentation provide readers with an understanding of Chinese scholars’ views on pertinent international issues in the years prior to the rapid decline and increased tensions in US relations with China. The book helps fill a gap for both specialists and other readers seeking Chinese perspectives to balance the prevailing foreign discourse on China’s rise and its implications.
Robert G. Sutter
George Washington University, Washington, DC