Canberra: Australian National University Press, 2020. xxvi, 515 pp. US$75.00, paper. ISBN 9781760464042.
Interpreting Myanmar: A Decade of Analysis by Andrew Selth is an insightful look at Myanmar politics over the past decade. Interpreting is a collection of blog posts written contemporaneously from 2008 to 2019 in reaction to significant events concerning Myanmar. These blog posts were written for journalists, policy practitioners, and academics with a birds-eye view of events within Myanmar. While more of a broad look at Myanmar, Selth writes on events in the country through a security lens, and in so doing provides a grounded understanding of Myanmar politics due to the central role the military (the Tatmadaw) plays in both domestic and foreign politics.
Because the Tatmadaw has played such a significant role in Myanmar politics since the 1962 coup, one can understand neither the domestic nor foreign politics of the country without centering explanations around the military. Selth consistently and clearly explains current events with a critical eye on the Tatmadaw, its relationship with Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), Myanmar civil society, and the various ethnic nationalist movements in Myanmar. Even though each entry is a blog post, the collection of posts taken over the span of more than a decade, provides a foundational understanding of political events that can be useful to both novices and experts in Myanmar politics.
The topics covered in the volume range widely, from rumors regarding the status of elite actors, to the possible pursuit of nuclear weapons by the Tatmadaw. Selth approaches each topic with care and repeatedly turns the reader to the fundamentals of the Tatmadaw’s presence in politics and urges the reader to not buy into wild speculation or activist-driven narratives. Selth’s caution is especially important when considering Myanmar’s foreign policy. Often, explanations of Myanmar’s foreign policy are driven by those who lack a concrete understanding of the military or by idealists who seek to push a certain agenda. In Selth’s work, by contrast, one finds a clear explanation of Myanmar’s behavior in the international arena through the lens of domestic politics.
One particular strength of the book is Selth’s central focus on the cohesion of the Tatmadaw. By keeping the cohesion of the Tatmadaw central to his explanations, Selth advances several theories of its behavior founded on the premise of a unitary actor. While Selth certainly does not argue that all officers within the military think alike, or that ambitious officers do not pursue their own individual interests, positing a high degree of cohesion allows Selth to explain why the Tatmadaw is wary of the NLD, which in turn, helps explain how the military was able to act cohesively while controlling the transition to an electoral democracy.
Juxtaposed to the cohesion of the Tatmadaw, one key argument Selth repeatedly offers centers on the fractured nature of the opposition. By pitting the cohesion of the military against the fragmented opposition, Selth persuasively explains the futility of pro-democracy movements, the constraints facing powerful figures, such as Aung San Suu Kyi, and the limited options of powerful foreign countries in reducing the Tatmadaw’s influence in politics. More specifically, Selth highlights how the fractured opposition to the Tatmadaw, with various nationalist movements acting independently of the NLD, produces an incoherent response to the military’s actions. Ultimately, the cohesion of the military and fractured nature of the opposition results in a durable system dominated by the Tatmadaw.
Another strength of Selth’s volume, and why it will be useful to various audiences, is the variety of topics. Whether the reader is interested in ASEAN’s policy towards Myanmar and Myanmar’s relationship with the regional organization, weapons of mass destruction, democracy movements, the policies of the United States and other regional powers such as Australia and China towards Myanmar, or the actions of the government against the Rohingya, there are essays which should appeal to a wide range of interests.
Lastly, this work is also important for its utility in explaining the current situation in Myanmar. The Tatmadaw executed its February 2021 coup well after the publication of this volume. While there are no essays speaking directly to the Tatmadaw’s behavior in the immediate run-up to the coup, including the proliferation of conspiracy theories regarding election results, the understanding one gains of the Tatmadaw is critical to explaining its current behavior. More specifically, Selth helps the reader understand how the military sees itself and its relationship with other political actors within Myanmar and provides a necessary foundation to explain the actions of the military in removing the NLD from power.
Although Interpreting helps explain current events in Myanmar, it lacks a central thesis to tie the entire work together. Thus, for the more advanced observer of Myanmar, the book does little to help the reader think about Myanmar in a new way, nor is it well positioned to speak to the broader academic literature. While Selth does not structure this book with a thesis to tie the observed data together, there is a common theme which clearly guides Selth’s understanding of Myanmar. For Selth, the paranoia of the Tatmadaw guides much of its actions. From potentially seeking WMDs and working with North Korea, to developing a self-sufficient defense industry, the fear of outsiders drives much of the Tatmadaw’s behavior. Most useful to explaining the military’s security policy, Interpreting also helps explain the Tatmadaw’s reluctance to turn political power over to the NLD—a domestic actor the military does not trust to fully humor the military’s paranoia of outsiders.
While one may focus on the lack of academic rigor of the volume, we should not overlook the strengths of this work. Selth offers clear and straightforward explanations of contemporaneous events in Myanmar. This allows the reader to gain a broad, yet thorough, understanding of Myanmar politics. With Interpreting, the reader is better prepared to understand current events in Myanmar, especially in the wake of the February coup and the reemergence of direct military control.
Darin Sanders Self
Cornell University, Ithaca