New York: Oxford University Press, 2022. viii, 327 pp. (Maps, figures, B&W photos.) US$40.00, cloth. ISBN 9780197633984.
In the book On Dangerous Ground, Gregory Poling makes a significant contribution to the literature on the South China Sea disputes and their impact on maritime security in Asia and beyond. The disputes in the semi-enclosed sea are predominantly discussed through the lens of the overlapping claims and maritime interests of the claimant states, as the venue for rising naval competition between China and the United States, and as examples of (failed) attempts at conflict management by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and international arbitration. The scholarship on the South China Sea is vast and rapidly expanding but surprisingly no other source has to my knowledge attempted to comprehensively evaluate US involvement and interests in the disputes over the last century. Poling successfully fills this important vacuum and reminds the reader from the start that the “United States has been involved in the South China Sea disputes almost from their conception” (9).
Poling combines a deep understanding of history and international law as well as of Southeast Asian diplomatic and strategic studies to put forward a clear and well-developed argument. He convincingly demonstrates that US involvement in the South China Sea disputes has been driven by the fact that the “most vital and abiding U.S. interests in the South China Sea are freedom of the seas and America’s alliance commitment to the Philippines, both of which support its ability to operate in the region” (243). This line of reasoning offers a common thread across 10 chapters, ranging from the seeds of discord in the South China Sea in the nineteenth century to a course to steer in the present day. Poling does not rely on a complex conceptual framework to build his case. Instead, he studies American involvement by linking the evolution of the international law of the sea to evolving American maritime interests and policy over more than a century as well as to its military defense alliance with the Philippines. This requires Poling to master different sets of concepts and empirical evidence and he does so remarkably well by locating his specific focus in a much wider context.
On Dangerous Ground is based on excellent scholarship and solid research. The introduction nicely sets the stage while the chronological approach that follows makes the book accessible and easy to read. Poling switches comfortably from in-depth discussions on the international security of the South China Sea, US maritime policies and relations with the Philippines, to the negotiation of the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS). The knowledge of American and Southeast Asian politics and history combined with a deep understanding of international law is impressive. The empirical chapters are clear, detailed, and informative. Poling also makes good use of numerous maps to illustrate his evidence.
Poling offers a frank assessment of US involvement in the South China Sea disputes. Readers may be surprised by the repeated absence of a clearly defined US strategy on the issue. As a result, Washington has made costly mistakes such as its weak responses to China taking control of disputed territory (Paracel Islands in 1974, Spratly Island occupations in 1988, and Scarborough Shoal in 2012) and to the Chinese building of artificial islands close to the Philippines and other Southeast Asian claimants. Poling also demonstrates how the United States continues to struggle to find the right balance between reliability and the fear of entrapment when it comes to its military defense alliance with the Philippines and the clarification of its Article 5. The US approach vis-à-vis Manila is contrasted to its more robust alliance with Japan and the American position on the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Poling also seems to suggest that the United States may have been over-reliant on ASEAN diplomacy and its attempt at negotiating a code of conduct with China while the regional body has become “increasingly irrelevant in the changing state of play” (218). Still, Poling adopts a nuanced stand when concluding that there is “still a path to secure U.S. national interests at an acceptable cost” and that Washington and its regional allies have not yet lost the South China Sea (255).
These concluding remarks may be the only shortcoming of the book. After having described more than a century of US involvement and a long list of crises in the South China Sea, Poling only dedicates a few pages to policy prescription and possible futures. This discussion could have been expanded but Poling will undoubtedly continue to examine how best to secure US interests and preserve peace and stability in the South China Sea. On Dangerous Ground is a wonderful contribution to the literature and a must-read for all practitioners, academics, and students interested in the South China Sea disputes, US maritime policy, and the international law of the sea.
Ralf Emmers
SOAS University of London, London