Age and Ideology: The Emergence of New Political Cleavages in Thailand’s 2566 (2023) Election

The Move Forward Party’s victory in Thailand’s 14 May 2566 (2023 CE) election surprised most observers, defying widespread predictions of a Pheu Thai win. Departing from traditional vote-mobilization strategies, Move Forward’s campaign focused largely on social media and broad calls for political reform while eschewing the vote-canvassing networks and economic policy promises that had delivered victory after victory for Pheu Thai. Does Move Forward’s win indicate changes in Thai voting behaviour? Relying on data from an original survey collected the week before and the week after the election, as well as observations from fieldwork, we identify two political cleavages that were influential in shaping vote choice: age and ideology. Younger voters and those who embrace more liberal values were significantly more likely to support Move Forward. Nevertheless, we caution that this election may be unique, and that these political cleavages may not necessarily drive voter behaviour in future elections.

视角

年龄与意识形态：泰国2566（2023）年大选中出现的新政治割裂

关键词：选举、泰国、选举割裂、意识形态、年轻选民

在泰历2566（公历2023）年5月14日大选中，前进党颠覆了为泰党获胜的广泛预测，震惊了大部分观察家。前进党的竞选脱离了传统的选票动员策略，而是主要集中于社交媒体以及对政治改革的广泛呼吁，与此同时规避了为为泰党赢得一次又一次胜利的拉票网络以及经济政策承诺。前进党的胜利是否表明泰国选举行为的变化？我们依据在选举之前和之后一周的原始调查数据，以及田野研究的观察结果，辨识出影响投票选择的两种政治割裂：年龄和意识形态。年轻选民和拥抱更自由主义价值观的选民支持前进党的可能性明显更高。尽管如此，我们也审慎提出，此次选举可能是独一无二的，而且这些政治割裂也可能不会在未来的选举中驱动选民行为。

Translated by Li Guo