Dean Dulay
Singapore Management University, Singapore
Allen Hicken
University of Michigan, USA
Anil Menon
University of Michigan, USA
Ronald Holmes
De La Salle University, Philippines
Keywords: Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos, Rodrigo Duterte, 2022 Philippine elections, democratization, authoritarianism, historical memory, ethnic voting
DOI: 10.5509/202396185
In May of 2022, Bongbong Marcos won a commanding 59 percent of the vote to become president of the Philippines. His victory was, on some level, shocking to scholars and analysts of Philippine politics. As a result, a plethora of different theories have been proposed, in an attempt to explain why Marcos won. In this paper, we use nationally representative survey data to explore which factors predict (and do not predict) voting intention for Marcos. We find that, a) support for former President Rodrigo Duterte, b) positive perceptions of the late President Ferdinand Marcos and martial law, and c) ethnic (linguistic) identity are strong predictors of voting for Bongbong Marcos. On the other hand, age, education, and income are not. Consequently, theories based on continuity, coalition, history, and identity provide the most leverage on the question of why Bongbong Marcos won the election.
延续性、历史与身份：邦邦∙马科斯为何会赢得2022年菲律宾总统大选？
关键词：菲律宾，费迪南德∙马科斯，罗德里戈·杜特尔特， 2022年菲律宾大选，民主化，威权主义，历史记忆，族裔投票。
2022年5月，邦邦∙马科斯赢得了59%的选票，以强大优势获选成为菲律宾总统。他的胜选在一定程度上震惊了菲律宾政治的研究者和分析家。结果是他们提出了大量不同的理论，试图解释马尔克斯为何会胜出。我们在本论文中利用具有全国代表性的调查数据探讨了哪些因素能预测（和不能预测）给马科斯投票的意向。我们发现a) 支持杜特尔特，b) 对已故总统费迪南德∙马科斯和戒严法抱有正面看法，以及c）族群（语言的）身份都是投票支持邦邦∙马科斯的强预测变量。另一方面，年龄、教育、收入都不是强预测变量。结果是，以延续性、联盟、历史和身份为基础的理论在解释邦邦∙马科斯为何会赢得大选的问题上最为有力。
Translated by Li Guo
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