Sumit Ganguly
Indiana University, Bloomington, USA
Keywords: Sino-Indian border dispute, quadrilateral, Doklam Plateau, limited probes, Bhutan
DOI: 10.5509/2018912231
Sino-Indian relations, which have long been fraught, took an especially adverse turn this summer with a military-to-military confrontation on the Doklam Plateau near the India-Bhutan-Tibet trijunction. After several weeks, Indian and Chinese forces withdrew from the region. However, neither side resiled from their respective territorial claims. This episode exemplified the troubles that have come to characterize the Sino-Indian relationship, especially since Prime Minister Modi assumed office in 2014. His regime, which is more nationalistic and reposes greater faith in the utility of force in international politics, had initially sought to diplomatically court the PRC in the hopes of improving their bilateral relationship. However, these efforts did not prove successful. Instead, the People’s Liberation Army, as in the past, continued to undertake limited probes along the Himalayan border, while the PRC continued to make diplomatic, commercial, and strategic inroads into India’s neighbours, trying to reduce India’s influence in those countries. The Modi regime, in turn, sought to counter these initiatives through various efforts of its own in the neighbourhood. Beyond South Asia, India has also sought to enhance its ties with Australia, Japan, the United States, and Vietnam in an attempt to hedge against the PRC’s growing economic and military assertiveness in Asia. These endeavours, however, have elicited hostile reactions from Beijing, which sees New Delhi as the only significant potential hurdle to the expansion of its influence in Asia. Despite Beijing’s adverse reactions it is unlikely that the current regime in New Delhi will scale back its efforts to cope with what it deems to be significant threats emanating from its behemoth northern neighbour.
印度与中国:走向冲突
关键词:中-印边境争端, 四边关系,洞朗高原,有限试探,不丹
这个夏季,一直以来并不顺遂的中印关系又进一步恶化,在印度-不丹-西藏交界处的洞朗高原发生了军事冲突。几周之后,印度和中国部队都从该地区撤出。然而双方都没有撤回各自的领土诉求。 这次事件例证了中印关系——特别是自总理莫迪于2014年上台起——的一些特征性的问题。 莫迪政府更富有爱国主义色彩,并在国际政治中更于倚重于军力,然而最初还是寻求通过外交手段向北京示好,以期改进双边关系。但是这些努力并未证明成功。相反,人民解放军一如既往地在喜马拉雅边境进行一些有限的试探活动。与此同时,中国继续对印度的邻国进行外交、商业以及战略上的入侵,意在降低印度在这些国家的影响力。相应地,莫迪政府试图通过自己的各种方式来抵消中国在自己邻国的作为的效果。在南亚之外,印度还试图增强自己与澳大利亚、日本、美国和越南的联系,以试图对冲中国在亚洲日益增长的经济和军事自负。然而这些努力招致北京的敌对反应,视新德里为中国在亚洲扩充影响力的唯一的重大的潜在障碍。 然而,尽管北京做出敌对反应,现任的新德里政府不太可能会放弃它努力应对被视为来自巨兽般的北部邻居的重大威胁的努力。
Translated from English by Li Guo
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