Social Media and the DIY Politics in Thailand’s 2023 Election

This article argues that Thailand’s 2023 parliamentary election was the first election where social media played a decisive factor in the electoral outcomes. Prior to this election, social media was an important campaign tool, but it was unclear whether it made a difference in the electoral results. Based on our original post-election survey data (n = 1,249), social media was the most important media in governing vote choice. Social media was a crucial space for activation and conversion—motivating the undecided to become partisans and converting partisan voters to shift their allegiances. Thailand’s 2023 election was also marked by rising personalization of political campaigning, wherein citizens felt free to decide how and what their political participation would look like, and parties that encouraged inclusive and open engagement with politics were best poised to win in the electoral arena. Drawing on social network analysis of social media data, this article demonstrates how the Move Forward Party’s (MFP) loosely structured and inclusive social media campaigns allowed both their candidates and supporters to mobilize individualized large-scale collective action, in contrast to their rivals who focused on traditional top-down style campaigning. Despite the MFP’s winning social media campaigning that produced electoral victories, the party was unable to come to power due to an entrenched authoritarian political system designed to maintain the power of the country’s autocratic elites. The Thai case demonstrates powerfully how autocrats might lose an election due to social media, but still manage to hang on to power through entrenched authoritarian institutions.

视角

2023年泰国大选中的社交媒体和DIY政治

关键词：社交媒体、选举、泰国、集体行动、个性化

本论文认为2023年泰国议会选举是社交媒体第一次对选举结果产生决定作用的选举。在这次大选之前，社交媒体是重要的竞选工具，但是并不清楚它是否对选举结果有影响。根据我们的选举后调查的原始数据(n = 1,249), 社交媒体是决定投票选择最重要的媒体。社交媒体是激活和转化的关键空间——激励立场未明的人成为党派拥趸，转变党派投票者，改变其忠诚对象。2023年大选也以政治竞选的日益个性化为特征，公民自由决定怎样参与政治，鼓励包容和开放性地参与政治的政党在选举舞台上稳操胜券。利用对社交媒体数据的社会网络分析，本文展示了前进党（MFP）的结构松散且包容性强的社交媒体竞选是如何能让他们的候选人和支持者进行个性化的大规模集体行动动员，跟那些专注于传统的自上而下竞选的对手形成鲜明对比。尽管MFP的社交媒体竞选取得了选举胜利，但由于旨在维持专制精英统治的根深蒂固的威权政治体系，该党未能掌权执政。泰国的案例强有力的表明，专制者是怎样因为社交媒体而丢掉选举，但却设法通过根深蒂固的威权体制而保住权力地位的。

Translated by Li Guo