The Real Deal: Results versus Outcomes of the 2023 Thai General Election

Thailand’s 2023 election outcome did not correspond with the results: the Move Forward Party “won” the polls, but runner-up Pheu Thai ended up forming the government. How could this have happened? This article offers two explanations. First, results and outcomes have typically differed in recent Thai elections: in itself, the substitution of Pheu Thai for Move Forward was nothing unusual. Second, in 2023 an elite pact was in place to ensure that Pheu Thai and the country’s conservative elite could engage in a form of promiscuous power-sharing following the May 14 polls. The article explains the politics behind this deal-making, and argues that the creation of the Srettha Thavisin government may not have been an accidental electoral outcome, but could have formed part of a deliberate strategy by the Thai establishment.

视角

真正的交易：2023年泰国大选的选票结果与选举结果

关键词：泰国、选举、政党、交易、网络型君主制、他信

2023年泰国大选的选举结果与选票结果并不相符：前进党 “赢得” 了选票，但是第二名为泰党最终得以组建政府。怎么会发生这种事？本文提供了两种解释。首先，选票结果与选举结果在近年的泰国选举中通常是不符的：就本身而言，为泰党取代前进党并不是非同寻常的事。第二，在2023年达成了一个精英协议，确保为泰党和泰国的保守精英可以在五月十四日大选之后实行某种形式的混杂权力共享。本文解释了这个交易背后的政治，并提出斯雷塔·塔维辛政府的成立可能不是偶然的选举结果，而可能是泰国当权者深思熟虑的战略的一部分。

Translated by Li Guo