Why “Temu Trumpism” Failed in Australia: Labour’s Landslide Victory and the Pro-Globalization Consensus

The landslide victory won by the incumbent centre-left Labor Party in Australia’s May 2025 federal election capped a remarkable turnaround for a government that just months earlier appeared vulnerable to defeat at the hands of a conservative opposition that had flirted with populist appeals. We argue that Labor’s re-election was down to both good timing and favourable long-term political dynamics. Drawing on electoral data, campaign discourse, and existing scholarship, we argue that the conduct and outcome of the election confirmed the continuing symbiosis between Australia’s pro-globalization elite consensus and public preferences on key issues like free trade and migration. Australia’s electoral system, economic geography, and path dependencies created by past liberalizing reforms have limited the capacity for anti-globalization or nativist parties to acquire an agenda-setting position in mainstream politics. The Liberal-National opposition coalition’s perceived ideological alignment with Trumpism alienated key demographics, while Labor’s cautious centrism dovetailed with voters’ preference for stability as the global impacts of Trump 2.0 loomed large. Yet, we caution that chronic challenges of unaffordable housing and stagnant productivity could erode the social and economic foundations of Australia’s open, liberal consensus if not addressed by the Labor government’s forward reform agenda.