Weijun Xu
University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Keywords: China, popular nationalism, foreign policy, Sino-US relations, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan
DOI: 10.5509/2024973-art7
This article focuses on China’s policy response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Pelosi’s action triggered a surge of popular nationalist sentiments in China, but the response of the Chinese government was far less tough than what many popular nationalists had expected. The article argues that the Chinese government’s policy choice in response to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan did not depend on the demands of popular nationalists, but rather was based on a cost-benefit analysis according to its perceptions. The influence of popular nationalism on the government’s foreign policy choices has been exaggerated owing to an overestimation of the government’s reliance on nationalism for its regime legitimacy, and an underestimation of the government’s control over public opinion and nationalist activities.
中国对南希·佩洛西访台的政策回应：对民族主义影响的再审视
关键词: 中国、大众民族主义、外交政策、中美关系、佩洛西访台
本文考察了中国对美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西 2022 年 8 月访台的政策反应。佩洛西的举动引发了中国大众民族主义情绪高涨，但中国政府的政策反应远没有许多大众民族主义者曾经期待的那么强硬。本研究认为，中国政府针对佩洛西访台的政策选择，并非取决于大众民族主义者的诉求，而是基于建立在其认知上的成本效益分析。由于高估了中国政府对民族主义合法性的依赖，低估了中国政府对舆论和民族主义活动的控制，大众民族主义对中国政府外交政策选择的影响被夸大了。