Ayumi Teraoka
Columbia University, New York, USA
Ryo Sahashi
University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Keywords: defense policy, international security, East Asia, Japan, domestic politics, foreign policy analysis, international relations
DOI: 10.5509/2024973-art1 | FULL TEXT AVAILABLE
Japan’s security policy is changing rapidly, with drastic increases to its defense budget and the acquisition of counterstrike capabilities. While the deteriorating security environment undeniably motivates Japan’s defense posture, the speed and extent of these recent changes still present a puzzle. Why was it under Kishida Fumio—a former leader of Kōchikai, the liberal and oft-considered pacifist faction within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)—that Japan achieved its watershed moment on defense? This article explains this change through the exigencies of Kishida’s domestic political survival. It was through his leadership of a minority faction within the LDP, his image as a dove, and support for fiscal discipline, that Kishida managed to find the largest common denominator among competing domestic political forces. Had it not been for Kishida, the speed and degree of Japan’s recent transformation in security policies would have been unlikely. In light of these findings, we conclude by considering the policy implications for understanding Japan’s security posture.
日本革命性的军事变革：解释其为什么会在岸田治下发生
关键词: 国防政策、国际安全、东亚、日本、国内政治、外交政策分析、国际关系
随着国防预算大幅增加以及通过军购获取反攻击能力，日本的安全政策正在迅速发生变化。尽管安全环境的恶化无可否认地刺激了日本的防卫姿态，但近来发生的这些变化的速度和程度却仍然令人困惑。为什么日本是在自民党 (LDP)内部自由派、并通常被认为是和平主义派的高知会领袖岸田文雄的领导之下实现了国防领域具有分水岭意义的时刻？本论文通过岸田国内政治生存的迫切性来解释这一变迁。岸田通过对自民党内部少数派的领导、鸽派形象以及对财政纪律的支持，设法在国内各种竞争的政治力量之间找到了最大公约数。倘若没有岸田，日本最近在安全政策上的转型根本不可能达到这样的速度和程度。 根据这些发现，我们最后考量了对日本安全姿态理解的政策意义。