To Join or Not to Join? State Ownership, Commercial Interests, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is often regarded as a vehicle of China’s economic statecraft in that country’s endeavor to expand its geopolitical influence overseas through investments and trade. In today’s globalized world, however, the vast majority of international economic interactions are conducted by firms, not states. The success of the BRI therefore depends on whether and how China can compel its firms to behave in a way that serves the strategic interests of the state. Using a unique firm-level survey, we find that Chinese firms’ interests in the BRI do not necessarily align with the state’s. Despite the similar perceived risks and challenges to participation in the BRI among private and state-owned firms in China, state-owned enterprises are much more likely than private ones to express a willingness to participate in the BRI. These findings highlight the importance of state control in the exercise of economic statecraft.

加入还是不加入？——国有制、商业利益以及中国的“一带一路”倡议

关键词：中国， 一带一路倡议，经济治国方略，外国投资， 贸易，国有企业

“一带一路“倡议通常被视为在中国通过投资和贸易来拓展其国家的地缘政治影响力的努力下的治国经济方略的一个载体。然而，在当今全球化的世界，绝大多数的国际经济互动是通过企业而非国家来进行的。因此，”一带一路“倡议成功与否取决于中国是否能够迫使它的企业按照符合国家战略利益的方式来从事其活动。我们进行了独特的企业层面的调查，发现”一带一路”中中国企业的利益并不见得跟国家利益相一致。尽管中国的私人企业和国有企业对参与“一带一路”事业的风险和挑战的感知颇为相似，但国有企业比私人企业更可能表达参加“一带一路”的意愿。这些发现凸显了国家控制在经济治国方略的实践中的重要性。

Translated from English by Li Guo