Albany, NY: SUNY Press, 2023. xvii, 288 pp. (Tables, figures.) US$95.00, cloth. ISBN 9781438492353.
In China and Its Small Neighbors, Sung Chull Kim examines the political implications of the economic asymmetry between China and some of its regional neighbours. Kim argues that, in light of China’s economic advances toward its neighbours in Asia, each state has to decide a middle way between commitment and decoupling (i.e., hedging). This strategy results from a combination of the vulnerability stemming from asymmetric relations with China (i.e., the risk in hedging-on) and the range of bilateral or multilateral engagements intended to reduce risks in engaging with China (i.e., the availability of hedging-against). The author aptly illustrates the patterns of hedging adopted by the six case studies (35): North Korea and Mongolia in Northeast Asia; Uzbekistan in Central Asia; and Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam in Southeast Asia.
Likewise, the book also examines the relationship between economic asymmetry and coercive vulnerability, concisely summarizing the varying degrees of vulnerability among these small states, with Cambodia and North Korea being the most vulnerable and Vietnam the least. In general, Cambodia and North Korea opt to align with China, while Vietnam, Myanmar, Uzbekistan, and Mongolia pursue more balanced strategies, seeking partnerships with both China and other major powers, especially the US and Russia.
Kim’s work offers three significant contributions. First, the book introduces new, useful typologies of hedging strategies, “hedging-on” and “hedging-against,” making a theoretical contribution to the literature. Second, it offers a comprehensive analysis of six small and understudied states, examining how international trade and regime type influence their foreign policies. Third, the book has significant policy implications as the increasing vulnerability of small states to Chinese coercion is a concern for these states and for external observers. Additionally, the future vulnerability of these states is crucial in the context of US-China competition.
One of the book’s key arguments is that small states seek to leverage economic cooperation with China while diversifying their external relations to reduce political risks resulting from overreliance on China. However, it remains unclear how the Chinese government exerts influence over foreign political elites. While Kim suggests that Beijing could bribe or coerce authorities in vulnerable states, there are few concrete examples of political risks arising from excessive dependence on China. At times, the book even seems to downplay the agency of political elites in small states. For instance, Kim writes: “[c]hapter 4 shows that Cambodia has been forced align [sic] with China” (8) or “North Korea has been forced to listen to [China]” (56). A great power’s ability to coerce a small state depends not only on the small state’s vulnerability but also on the actions and decisions of its politicians and bureaucrats.
In addition, the narrow case selection is problematic. Although Kim acknowledges South Asia as one of the four subregions bordering China, it is noticeably missing from the discussion. Instead of three case studies on Southeast Asia, having at least one case study from South Asia would have provided more scope for discussion. For instance, Nepal and Sri Lanka are both small states where China and India compete for economic dominance. Even Pakistan, while not minor in terms of military spending, has a smaller economy than Vietnam and may be considered a small state with strategic importance for both the US and China. Future studies can test the validity of the arguments through case studies in South Asia.
Concerns also arise regarding the analysis. Kim employs measures like trade concentration, local corruption, and reliance on Chinese foreign aid to analyze the susceptibility of these small states to Beijing’s coercive actions. A potential methodological issue is the high likelihood of these measures being correlated. Previous studies show that trade with China is positively correlated with the number of Chinese aid projects and certain types of Chinese foreign aid, such as OFF (Axel Dreher et al., “Apples and Dragon Fruits: The Determinants of Aid and Other Forms of State Financing from China to Africa,” International Studies Quarterly, 62, no. 1, 2018). In addition, there could be a correlation between corrupt environments and China’s aid. In chapter 4, Kim discusses Phnom Penh’s willingness to accept aid from Beijing that comes with no strings attached, as opposed to dealing with Western aid that requires good governance and transparency. If this is the case, then corruption in Cambodia is influencing both its vulnerability and the likelihood of receiving Chinese aid. The high likelihood of these measures being correlated makes it challenging to rigorously examine the relationship between economic asymmetry and coercive vulnerability.
Finally, the book would benefit from a more extensive theoretical discussion of the four types of hedging strategies. Kim identifies the strategies of the six states as “typical hedging” (Myanmar and Uzbekistan), “multidimensional hedging” (Mongolia), “mixed hedging” (Vietnam), and “alignment” (Cambodia and North Korea). While each chapter dedicated to the six small states offers evidence of these four types, there is notable overlap between the hedging strategies, particularly between multidimensional and mixed hedging. Both Mongolia and Vietnam employ hedging-on strategies. For example, they are both members of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and China is the largest trading partner for both countries; nevertheless, they employ hedging-against strategies by strengthening ties with extraregional powers. According to the book, Ulaanbaatar has enhanced relations with the US and South Korea, while Hanoi has done so with Russia and India. Japan is also an important economic partner for both states. Furthermore, Mongolia and Vietnam actively engage in various multilateral institutions to counter Chinese influence, such as the UN, ASEAN, and WTO. The hedging strategies employed by Vietnam and Mongolia do not exhibit significant differences that would justify placing them in separate categories. To better understand the differences between multidimensional and mixed hedging, further elaboration is needed.
Yet overall, Kim provides an excellent analysis of the political implications of economic reliance on China among its Asian neighbours. The book offers valuable typologies and a thorough analysis of the foreign policies of six understudied states. The political risks associated with Chinese regional diplomacy are of interest to the entire international community.
Angel M. Villegas-Cruz
Pennsylvania State University, State College