Australia and Russia have a lot in common. Territories of the two countries are amongst the largest in the world. Swaths of territory are associated with pristine nature, with unique wild species of flora and fauna thriving across many national parks. More than two-thirds of Russians live in the European part, which comprises around one-fifth of the country’s total territory. Australia is also unevenly populated, with most people living along the eastern Boomerang coast. Journey by rail is also inspiring. In both countries one can travel for several days—from Moscow to Vladivostok or from Sydney to Perth—and not leave the country. The two countries also share a love for barbecue parties. Wild animals, from bears, deer, raccoons, and arctic foxes in Russia, to kangaroos, wallabies, and koalas in Australia, can often be seen roaming the streets of small towns or even cities. Finally, both countries are abundant in natural resources, including agricultural products, minerals, and energy, which provide a large share of export revenues.
Energy exports, and associated national strategies, are the focus of this edited volume. The volume offers both a timely and an important contribution to a growing body of work on Russia’s energy strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Implications of Russia’s energy “pivot to the east” are particularly important from Australia’s perspective. Australia is heavily reliant on Indo-Pacific markets—mainly China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—as key destinations for its energy exports, specifically liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal. Indeed, in 2021, as much as 99 percent of Australia’s LNG exports, and more than 90 percent of coal exports, were destined for the region.
In contrast to Australia, Russia has traditionally prioritized markets in Europe and the former Soviet Union. Russia’s diversification away from its traditional markets commenced in 2009, the year that Russia started delivering its crude oil to Asian markets via the Eastern Pacific-Siberian Ocean (ESPO) pipeline. In the same year, Russia started exporting LNG exclusively to Asian markets from the Sakhalin-II LNG project. In 2018, supplies from Yamal LNG in the Arctic started flowing to Asian (and other) markets. The following year, Russia commenced transporting natural gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline. During 2021, Russia’s coal supply to China has grew steadily due to Beijing’s import restrictions on Australian coal. In 2022, due to sanctions, Russia began reorienting its energy exports to China, India, and other Indo-Pacific markets, at a rapidly accelerating pace.
This edited volume aims to critically examine Russia’s energy strategy in the Indo-Pacific with a view to determining the security implications for Australia. Indeed, the main premise of the book is that Russia’s foray into the Asian market represents a security challenge for Canberra. The book is divided into four major sections, with nine chapters, along with the editor’s introduction and conclusion. The chapter contributions come from respected scholars whose work focuses on Russian and Australian energy strategies.
Part 1 examines the broader Indo-Pacific energy outlook, including regional energy security trends. Shoichi Itoh opens Part 1 with a study of the Indo-Pacific energy outlook, focusing on the shift in the global centre of gravity in energy demand from Europe and North America to Asia. Itoh points out that market competition between Australian, Russian, and US LNG export interests in the Indo-Pacific is set to increase in the future. Morena Škalamera contributes a study of Russia’s foray into the Asia-Pacific energy market. She argues that the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014, and the impact of subsequent Western sanctions, provided a turning point in the pace of this pivot to Asia.
Part 2 investigates Russia’s foreign energy strategy and the question of what role energy plays in Russia’s grand strategy. Jakub Godzimirski demonstrates why energy is both central to the Russian economy and to Moscow’s grand strategy in providing the country with a strategic lever in the international arena. Peter Rutland presents an analysis of the post-Crimea implications on Russia’s quest to establish itself as an energy “superpower.” He argues that Russia’s capacity to wield the energy “weapon” to advance its interests has diminished over the past decade. Part 2 of the book closes with Keun-Wook Paik’s study of Russian energy companies in the Asian market. Paik finds that Russian companies have had very positive results from entering the Asian oil sector and mixed results from the gas sector.
Part 3 focuses on Australian energy strategy and its energy interests in the Indo-Pacific. John Blackburn presents a dire reality of Australia’s energy insecurity. As an example, in the absence of an energy security strategy, Australia’s liquid fuel import dependence has increased to 90 percent over the past decade. Blackburn argues that energy security should be addressed with nonpartisan political support instead of being highly politicized. Stephen Fortescue presents an assessment of Russian coal export strategy in Asia. He argues that while Russia’s coal exports may increasingly be competitive with Australia’s, Canberra will hold the competitive edge in the coal export market. However, he points out that the coal market is likely to contract under pressure from the global climate change movement and emissions targets.
The final part of the book considers the future of Russia’s energy strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Maria Shagina’s analysis focuses on Moscow’s adaptation strategy in response to the 2014 Western sanctions, predominantly targeted at the energy industry. Shagina notes that Western sanctions were not aimed at limiting Russian energy exports, but at raising the cost for Russia of developing technologically challenging energy projects. She argues that the short-term effect of sanctions is modest at best, given that Russia’s oil and gas production was at record levels. For Moscow, Asia serves not only as an alternative energy market but also as a source of advanced technology and finance. Finally, Tatiana Romanova focuses on Russia’s most recent 2019 Energy Security Doctrine. While the doctrine has an opaque legal status, it illustrates the Kremlin’s energy priorities. Specifically, it indicates that the Russian approach to international energy relations will continue to be driven by geopolitical realities rather than market concerns.
This book was written and published prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Shifting patterns of energy trade following the invasion indicate that Russia’s energy exports to China and India have increased, while exports to Japan and South Korea have declined during 2022. Even prior to the invasion, Australian and Russian energy exports were not in direct competition in the largest market (China), as they have been destined for different regions. In fact, they have been complementary. With energy trade becoming increasingly politicized, and markets divided based on geostrategic alliances, it is unlikely that Russia’s relatively small, but growing, export volumes to the Indo-Pacific will present a material threat to Australia’s security or prosperity in the foreseeable future.
Rabdan Academy, Abu Dhabi